Tuesday morning is looking bright for U.S. stocks, with futures pointing higher across the board. The Dow Jones is up 0.38%, the S&P 500 is gaining 0.55%, and the Nasdaq 100 is leading the charge with a 1.36% rise. This comes after a down Monday, where the Dow lost 0.59% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.19%.
The rally is being fueled by tech, and specifically semiconductors. The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ) is up 4.27% in premarket trading, with its top holdings—Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Micron Technology Inc. (MU), and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)—all trading higher. The broader market ETFs are also in the green: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is up 0.56% at $746.28, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is up 1.38% to $705.68.
But it's not all smooth sailing. Geopolitical risks are simmering in the background. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday, threatening to open a new front in the U.S.–Iran conflict and further endangering global trade and energy supplies beyond the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, at President Donald Trump's direction, U.S. forces carried out a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.59%, and the two-year is at 4.20%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows markets pricing an 83.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.
Stocks in Focus
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL) is up 2.34% in premarket after announcing the completion of a sale-leaseback deal for 26 company-owned store locations with an institutional real estate investor, netting roughly $77 million in proceeds. The company also said comparable store restaurant sales decreased approximately 2.5% and comparable store retail sales increased approximately 0.5% over the first 11 weeks of its fiscal fourth quarter.
Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) is down 1.90% after reporting mixed second-quarter results. Earnings of $3.69 per share missed the analyst consensus estimate of $3.77 per share, but sales of $6.092 billion beat the estimate of $5.570 billion.
Nebius Group (NBIS)
Nebius Group NV (NBIS) jumped 7.60% after Nvidia revealed in a new filing on Monday that it beneficially owns over a 9% stake, or 22.25 million Class A ordinary shares, of Nebius.
Archer Aviation (ACHR)
Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) rose 2.07% as the company unveiled its autonomous aircraft with Anduril for defense use, called Thunder.
IREN (IREN)
IREN Ltd. (IREN) was up 4.60% after signing $2.8 billion worth of cloud service contracts with multiple AI developers. The company also raised its year-end annualized run-rate revenue target for its AI cloud business to $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion previously.
Insights From Analysts
According to Bitunix analyst Dean Chen, global financial markets face heightening macroeconomic risks, ongoing supply chain stress, and persistent Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. Chen emphasizes that escalating geopolitical conflicts in crucial shipping bottlenecks—such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Black Sea—are creating a dual energy and food supply shock. Rising oil prices risk stoking broader inflation, which complicates the Fed's monetary path.
Addressing these crosscurrents, Chen notes that "the latest US inflation data has changed the short-term market narrative, but it has not fully resolved the debate over monetary policy direction." Furthermore, he warns that the economic backdrop "increasingly resembles a 'slowing growth but sticky inflation' environment." Rather than anticipating a straightforward market trend, Chen observes institutional investors prioritizing liquidity to navigate multiple outcomes. In response to shifting rate expectations and global liquidity constraints, he highlights that capital is concentrating in fewer high-conviction growth themes rather than lifting all risk assets equally. Consequently, Chen cautions that market direction will remain volatile, heavily tied to energy trends, Fed signals, and broader risk appetite.
Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets
Crude oil WTI futures are trading lower by 0.41% to hover around $82.14 per barrel. Gold spot is up 1.47% to around $4,066.56 per ounce, while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 100.9290. Bitcoin is trading 3.29% higher at $66,124.53 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets closed mixed on Tuesday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng and India's Nifty 50 falling, while China's CSI 300, Australia's ASX 200, South Korea's Kospi, and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.
No economic data is scheduled for release on Tuesday.
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